Newspapers dire but not dead, say latest ABC circ numbers

The fourth-quarter figures that incorporate the all-important Christmas period - which was better than expected last year - showed that, although magazines sales are generally holding up well, newspapers continue to take a beating in almost every aspect and in most categories compared with the fourth quarter of 2010. Most notably:

1. Total daily-newspaper circulation increased by 114 000 copies in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2011, compared with the previous quarter, mainly due to increases in free and community newspapers. But, importantly, 97 000 fewer (a drop of 6.7%) daily papers were sold in Q4 2011 compared with the same quarter in the previous year, while single-copy sales declined by 7% and subscriptions by 8.3%.

2. The total circulation of weekend newspapers declined by 4.9% (108 000 copies) compared with Q4 in 2010, as did single-copy sales (by 5.8% or 96 000 copies) and subscriptions (by 1.3% or 6000 copies).
   

Daily newspapers, courtesy of ABC: Presentation of fourth-quarter 2011 ANC figures ABC Q4 2011 presentation.

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Weekend newspapers, courtesy of ABC: Presentation of fourth-quarter 2011 ANC figures ABC Q4 2011 presentation.

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The devil is in the detail

Not a rosy picture overall but, as always, the devil is in the detail - and, to my mind, knowing something of the various media houses' publishing operations, especially of distribution.

For instance, it is important to note that the ABC separates out copy sales of below-50% cover price, so 'single-copy sales' refers to those editions sold at 50% of cover price and above. 'Total circulation' incorporates subscriptions, bulking, the 'PMIE' editions given to schools and those sold for under-50% of cover price.

(As an aside, Charles Beiles, the ABC GM, told me that it is looking at incorporating Kindle sales later this year, which publications such as the Mail & Guardian will welcome, having launched its Kindle edition in February last year.)

Disastrous Cycad CRM system

Among the newspapers, the Afrikaans papers showed more decline than the English ones - 9.3% for the Afrikaans daily papers, compared with 6.7% for the English dailies; and 9.8% for the Afrikaans weekend papers, compared with 3.5% for English ones. This may well point to the need for a new look at whether the Afrikaans papers are offering content that is relevant but some part of this can be attributed to Media24's disastrous Cycad CRM system put in in 2009 that disrupted distribution networks and systems. How long it will take the papers to recover - if, indeed, they will in this tough market and trying economic times - remains to be seen.

Much more positive is the manner in which the isiZulu papers continue to grow in sales:

• Independent Newspapers' Isolezwe, for instance, showed the largest increase (2.7%) in circulation among the daily papers, compared with Q4 2010. In Q4 2011, it reached an excellent 102 457 single-copy sales (103 467 total circulation). Compare this, for instance, with the Durban-based daily paper, The Mercury, which was at 14 122 single copy sales in Q4 2011 (31 013 total) and you get the picture of just how well Isolezwe, which was started in 2002, is doing.

• The twice-weekly, century-old Ilanga, which is owned by the Ikatha Freedom Party's investment arm, showed the highest growth (2.7%) in single-copy sales in the weekly-papers category and claimed 129 112 (129 252 total circulation).

• Isolezwe ngeSonto, Isolezwe's Sunday paper, was also up (by 6.96% to 79 523 single-copy sales), while Ilanga's Sunday offering, Ilanga Langesonto was down (10.08% to 79 521 single-copy sales).

Other notable newspapers

Other notable newspaper titles include:

1. Avusa's flagship Sunday Times achieved a 6.03% increase in single-copy sales - a significant rise, considering the size of the paper's circulation - to 262 992 (462 895 total circulation).

2. The big daddy of the tabloids, Media24's Daily Sun, was at 380 492 single-copy sales in the fourth quarter of 2011 - an 8.14% drop on Q4 2010. Considering that the paper showed an 8.95% drop (to 374 341 single-copy sales) in the third quarter of 2011, compared with the corresponding period of 2010, it looks like it may have stabilised since it started falling from its 500 000 record high in 2008 and the Cycad mess. (Read the interview with Daily Sun GM Minette Ferreira earlier this year for more on this and other issues.)

3. The Mail & Guardian is still showing consistent growth, achieving a 2% growth in single-copy sales in Q4 2011 to 38 975 (50 474 total circulation). The paper - owned by the highly capable Zimbabwean publisher Trevor Ncube (@TrevorNcube) - picked up sales all through last year and, considering that its cover price is R23.50 (which is high for South Africa), it is in the happy position of becoming less reliant on advertising revenue.

4. Avusa's The Times - which is given away free to Sunday Times subscribers and has, therefore, long been a curiosity in publishing circles since it was started in 2007 - is also continuing to pick up single-copy sales. In the fourth quarter of 2011, it added an excellent 42% to reach 42 341 single-copy sales but, I would say, its low cover price (for its target market: R2.20) is worth factoring in. Either it's viewed as good value for money by consumers or as (almost) free.

5. Of the big losers, Independent Newspapers' Pretoria News is looking rather dire: it's down 12.5% to 12 124 single-copy sales (21 721 total circulation in Q4 2011 compared with 24 819 a year earlier). It's a shame that the Pretoria News wasn't included in the reshuffling of editors announced by Independent Newspapers in February, as the paper is crying out for fresh ideas.

6. The weekly isiZulu UmAfrika, which veers between being owned or part-owned by the Catholic Church, showed an alarming 28.7% drop in single-copy sales to 12 815 (12 874 total circulation in Q4 2011, compared with 18 060 a year previously). Once on the up, under the editorship and ownership of Cyril Madlala (who is now a KwaZulu-Natal government spokesman), UmAfrika is clearly losing ground in a big way to the robust Isolezwe and Ilanga.

Pull up their socks

It's time then for the Pretoria News and UmAfrika to pull up their socks in all aspects of editorial and publishing - as is the case, I would say, with the three regional daily papers near the 20 000 circulation mark: Avusa's The Herald in Port Elizabeth (21 576 total circulation, down from 22 386 in Q4 2010), Media24's Volksblad in Bloemfontein (22 286 total circulation, up from 19 750 in Q4 2010) and The Witness in Pietermaritzburg (20 040 total circulation, slightly up from 19 750 in Q4 2010).

The latter netted the respected Angela Quintal (@AngelaQuintal as its new editor in November last year (from Independent Newspapers' The Mercury in Durban) so maybe this is the start of a new, positive era for the paper, while Volksblad is definitely looking better.

Though The Herald, Volksblad and The Witness serve smaller markets that in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Pietermaritzburg, the message is clear: unless you lift your game, the trajectory is down from here and, once you get near 20 000, you're entering perilous waters. For this reason, warning bells should also be ringing for Avusa's Daily Dispatch in East London - at 26 763 total circulation in Q4 2011 (from 27 205 in 2011).

Not so bleak

These are hazardous times for newspapers but it's not so bleak that we should give up on them all.

Considering that papers such as the Mail & Guardian are growing consistently, the most important message in the ABC numbers is that you can survive and even build readership if you're offering consistently excellent, relevant content and the publishing is as good as it can be. For some of the others, it's unlikely they will see out the decade.

For more:

• ABC: Presentation of fourth-quarter 2011 ANC figures
  
• Bizcommunity: Latest ABCs: readers looking for quality, relevance (ABC Q3 2011 figures), November 2011
  
• Politicsweb: How SA newspaper can save themselves, October 2011